Forex Market: EUR/SEK daily forecast

August 12, 2014 6:32 am

During yesterday’s trading session EUR/SEK traded within the range of 9.1767-9.2474 and closed at 9.1993, losing 0.48% on a daily basis.

At 6:29 GMT today EUR/SEK was losing 0.08% for the day to trade at 9.1899. The pair touched a daily low at 9.1848 at 6:00 GMT.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

The ZEW economic sentiment in Germany, Euro zone’s largest economy, probably deteriorated to 18.2 this month, according to the median experts’ forecast. In July, the index came in at 27.1, that was the weakest since December 2012.

The ZEW (Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) economic expectations index is published monthly. The study involves 350 financial experts. The indicator reflects the difference between the share of analysts that are optimistic and those that are pessimistic about the expected economic development in Germany over the next six months. A positive figure indicates that the proportion of optimists is larger than that of the pessimists.

In addition, the ZEW economic sentiment index in the Euro zone as a whole, probably declined to 41.3 this month, according to the median analysts’ estimate. In July, the index came in at 48.1, that was the weakest level since August 2013.

Higher-than-projected readings would certainly provide support to the 18-nation common currency. The official data is to be released at 9:00 GMT.

Moreover, the annualized final consumer price index in Italy probably stood at 0.1% in July, matching the preliminary CPI reading, estimated on July 31st. Nation’s annualized final CPI for July, evaluated in accordance with the harmonized methodology, probably remained flat in July, matching the preliminary estimate. The National Institute of Statistics is to release the official CPI data at 9:00 GMT.

Sweden

Sweden’s annualized index of consumer prices (CPI) probably inched up 0.1% in July, after rising 0.2% in the previous month. The index measures the change in price levels of a basket of goods and services from consumer’s perspective and also reflects purchasing trends.

At the same time, nation’s annualized core CPI probably rose 0.7% last month, after adding 0.8% in June. Lower than expected CPI would have a bearish effect on the krone.

Statistics Sweden is to release the official report at 7:30 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 9.2078. In case EUR/SEK manages to breach the first resistance level at 9.2389, it will probably continue up to test 9.2785. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 9.3096.

If EUR/SEK manages to breach the first key support at 9.1682, it will probably continue to slide and test 9.1371. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 9.0975.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 9.2023. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 9.2580, R2 – 9.3016, R3 – 9.3573. The three key support levels are: S1 – 9.1587, S2 – 9.1030, S3 – 9.0594.

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