Forex Market: EUR/USD daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session EUR/USD traded within the range of 1.3380-1.3409 and closed at 1.3382, losing 0.16% for the day.

At 6:15 GMT today EUR/USD was losing 0.12% for the day to trade at 1.3367. The pair touched a daily low at 1.3364 at 6:11 GMT, breaching the first key daily and the first key weekly support levels.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

The ZEW economic sentiment in Germany, Euro zones largest economy, probably deteriorated to 18.2 this month, according to the median experts’ forecast. In July, the index came in at 27.1, that was the weakest since December 2012.

The ZEW (Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) economic expectations index is published monthly. The study involves 350 financial experts. The indicator reflects the difference between the share of analysts that are optimistic and those that are pessimistic about the expected economic development in Germany over the next six months. A positive figure indicates that the proportion of optimists is larger than that of the pessimists.

In addition, the ZEW economic sentiment index in the Euro zone as a whole, probably declined to 41.3 this month, according to the median analysts’ estimate. In July, the index came in at 48.1, that was the weakest level since August 2013.

Higher-than-projected readings would certainly provide support to the 18-nation common currency. The official data is to be released at 9:00 GMT.

Moreover, the annualized final consumer price index in Italy probably stood at 0.1% in July, matching the preliminary CPI reading, estimated on July 31st. Nation’s annualized final CPI for July, evaluated in accordance with the harmonized methodology, probably remained flat in July, matching the preliminary estimate. The National Institute of Statistics is to release the official CPI data at 9:00 GMT.

United States

The US Federal Budget Balance probably turned to deficit of $95.00 billion in July, following a $70.52 billion surplus in the previous month.

The monthly newsletter on revenue and expenditure of the United States Government (MTS) is prepared by the Office of Financial Management at the Ministry of Finance after approval by the Assistant Secretary of the Treasury. The newsletter covers the financial activities of the Federal Government and non- budgetary activities carried out in accordance with the budget of the U.S. government, ie revenue and expenditure of funds, deficit or surplus, which means cover the deficit or surplus allocation. The main information sources include accounting data reported by federal sources, tax and regional structures of Fed.

The US Department of the Treasury will publish its report at 18:00 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 1.3390. In case EUR/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.3401, it will probably continue up to test 1.3419. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.3430.

If EUR/USD manages to breach the first key support at 1.3372, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.3361. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.3343.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.3414. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.3460, R2 – 1.3492, R3 – 1.3538. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.3382, S2 – 1.3336, S3 – 1.3304.