Forex Market: AUD/USD daily forecast

August 13, 2014 11:14 am

During yesterday’s trading session AUD/USD traded within the range of 0.9248-0.9277 and closed at 0.9268, adding 0.08% for the day.

At 11:06 GMT AUD/USD traded at 0.9292, adding 0.26% for the day. The pair touched a daily high at 0.9299 at 6:40 GMT, breaching the two key daily supports.

Fundamental view

Retail Sales in the US probably inched up 0.2% in July from a month ago, when they gained 0.2%.

The indicator includes the total volume of wholesale and retail sales (cash or credit) of companies, mainly specializing in the retail sector. Sales are measured net, after deduction of the costs of refinancing. They do not include taxes paid by the buyer directly to the local government or the federal budget. These calculations measure the value of the operations used mostly by stores, whose main activity is retail sales. The index excludes retail sales made ​​by manufacturers, wholesalers, and other core businesses who operate in sectors, other than the retail sector. This is the percentage change in the index from the previous month.

At the same time, retail sales, excluding sales of autos or core retail sales probably rose 0.4% last month, after adding 0.4% in the prior month. Sales of autos, which comprise about 20% of total retail sales are excluded from the index, because their high volatility distorts the overall trend. Therefore, data without auto sales is considered a better indicator of the changing market trend. This is the percentage change in the index from the previous month.

Higher-than-expected readings would have a bullish effect on the greenback. The US Census Bureau will release an official report at 12:30 GMT.

Technical view

Screenshot from 2014-08-13 14:13:54

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 0.9264. In case AUD/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 0.9281, it will probably continue up to test 0.9293. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 0.9310.

If AUD/USD manages to breach the first key support at 0.9252, it will probably continue to slide and test 0.9235. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 0.9223.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 0.9297. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 0.9354, R2 – 0.9432, R3 – 0.9489. The three key support levels are: S1 – 0.9219, S2 – 0.9162, S3 – 0.9084.

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