Forex Market: EUR/AUD daily forecast

August 13, 2014 6:34 am

During yesterday’s trading session EUR/AUD traded within the range of 1.4399-1.4464 and closed at 1.4421, losing 0.2% for the day.

At 6:29 GMT today EUR/AUD was losing 0.25% for the day to trade at 1.4386. The pair touched a daily low at 1.4372 at 5:55 GMT, breaching the first key daily support level.

Fundamental view

Spain’s final annualized index of consumer prices (CPI) probably declined 0.3% in July, unchanged from the preliminary estimate made on July 30th. The index measures the change in price levels of a basket of goods and services from consumer’s perspective and also reflects purchasing trends. In case the CPI drops less than projected, this would have a bullish effect on the euro. The National Institute of Statistics will release its official report at 7:00 GMT.

At the same time, the Spanish final annualized CPI, evaluated in accordance with Eurostat’s harmonized methodology, probably remained unchanged at -0.3% last month, matching the preliminary estimate.

Industrial production in the Euro zone probably rose 0.3% in June from the previous month, according to the median analyst’ estimate. In May, industrial output dropped 1.1%. On year-over-year basis, the index probably inched up 0.1% in June, following a 0.5% gain in the previous month.

Industrial production is an indicator of the business cycle that shows the activity and development in the industry as a whole, by measuring the change in volume for a certain period of time. Information on industrial production is raised through special studies for EU members, which are called Prodcom. They cover between 5 000 and 6 000 products. The index measures the percentage change from the previous month.

A larger than expected increase in the industrial output would heighten the appeal of the euro. The official report is due out at 09:00 GMT.

Technical view

Screenshot from 2014-08-13 09:33:41

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 1.4428. In case EUR/AUD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.4457, it will probably continue up to test 1.4493. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.4522.

If EUR/AUD manages to breach the first key support at 1.4392, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.4363. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.4327.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.4403. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.4534, R2 – 1.4610, R3 – 1.4741. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.4327, S2 – 1.4196, S3 – 1.4120.

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