Forex Market: USD/PLN daily forecast

August 13, 2014 7:42 am

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/PLN within the range of 3.1346-3.1585. The pair closed at 3.1435, gaining 0.27% on a daily basis.

At 7:35 GMT today USD/PLN was up 0.05% for the day to trade at 3.1442. The pair touched a daily high at 3.1449 at 6:05 GMT.

Fundamental view

United States

Retail sales in the United States probably increased 0.3% in July on a monthly basis, according to the median forecast by experts. In June sales rose 0.2%. The report on retail sales reflects the dollar value of merchandise sold within the retail trade by taking a sampling of companies, operating in the sector of selling physical end products to consumers. The retail sales report encompasses both fixed point-of-sale businesses and non-store retailers, such as mail catalogs and vending machines. US Census Bureau, which is a part of the Department of Commerce surveys about 5 000 companies of all sizes, from huge retailers such as Wal-Mart to independent small family firms.

US core retail sales (retail sales ex autos) probably rose 0.4% in July compared to a month ago, following another 0.4% increase in June. This indicator removes large ticket prices and historical seasonality of automobile sales.

The retail sales index is considered as a coincident indicator, thus, it reflects the current state of the economy. It is also considered a pre-inflationary indicator, which investors can use in order to reassess the probability of an interest rate hike or cut by the Federal Reserve Bank. In addition, this indicator provides key information regarding consumer spending trends. Consumer expenditures, on the other hand, account for almost two-thirds of nation’s total Gross Domestic Product. Therefore, a larger than expected increase in sales would heighten the appeal of the US dollar. The official report is due out at 12:30 GMT.

Poland

Poland’s Central Statistical Office is to report on nation’s consumer price index for July at 12:00 GMT. The annualized index of consumer prices (CPI) stood at 0.3% in June, following a slowdown to 0.2% in May, with the latter being the lowest CPI reading since June 2013. The index measures the change in price levels of a basket of goods and services from consumer’s perspective and also reflects purchasing trends. In case consumer inflation accelerated more than anticipated, this would provide certain support to the zloty.

Also at 12:00 GMT the National Bank of Poland will release its report on nation’s current account regarding June. In May Polish current account produced a surplus of 280 million EUR, following another surplus at the amount of 941 million EUR in April, which has also been the highest surplus figure on record.

The current account reflects the difference between a nation’s savings and its investments. It is the sum of the balance of trade, net current transfers (cash transfers) and net income from abroad (earnings from investments made abroad plus money sent by individuals working abroad to their families back home, minus payments made to foreign investors).

A current account surplus indicates that a country’s net foreign assets have increased by the respective amount, while a deficit suggests the opposite. A country with a surplus on its current account is considered as a net lender to the rest of the world, while a current account deficit puts it in the position of a net borrower. A net lender is consuming less than it is producing, which means it is saving and those savings are being invested abroad, or foreign assets are created. A net borrower is consuming more than it is producing, which means that other countries are lending it their savings, or foreign liabilities are created. Therefore, an expanding surplus or a contracting deficit on the current account of a nation usually has a bullish effect on its currency.

Technical view

usd-pln

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 3.1455. In case USD/PLN manages to breach the first resistance level at 3.1565, it will probably continue up to test 3.1694. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 3.1804.

If USD/PLN manages to breach the first key support at 3.1326, it will probably continue to slide and test 3.1216. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 3.1087.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 3.1152, M2 – 3.1271, M3 – 3.1391, M4 – 3.1510, M5 – 3.1630, M6 – 3.1749.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 3.1305. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 3.1584, R2 – 3.1889, R3 – 3.2168. The three key support levels are: S1 – 3.1000, S2 – 3.0721, S3 – 3.0416.

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