Forex Market: USD/PLN daily trading forecast

August 20, 2014 9:01 am

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/PLN within the range of 3.1320-3.1443. The pair closed at 3.1403, gaining 0.24% on a daily basis.

At 8:58 GMT today USD/PLN was up 0.28% for the day to trade at 3.1473. The pair broke the first key daily resistance and touched a daily high at 3.1379 at 9:00 GMT.

Fundamental view

United States

At 18:00 GMT the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release the minutes from its meeting on policy held on July 29th-30th. The minutes offer detailed insights on FOMC’s monetary policy stance. This release is closely examined by traders, as it may provide clues over interest rate decisions in the future. High volatility is usually present after the publication.

Poland

Poland’s annualized industrial production probably expanded 2.2% in July, according to the median forecast by experts, following another 1.7% increase in June. If so, this would be the slowest rate of increase since August 2013. The index reflects the change in overall inflation-adjusted value of output in sectors such as manufacturing, mining and utilities. In case output expanded more than anticipated, this would have a bullish effect on the zloty. The Central Statistical Office of Poland is expected to release the official report at 12:00 GMT.

Producer prices in the country probably decreased 1.8% in July compared to the same month a year ago, according to market expectations, following another 1.7% slump in June. This index measures the average change over time in the selling prices, received by domestic producers for their output in the wholesale market. The PPI differs from the CPI, which measures the change in prices from consumer’s perspective. Lower than expected producer prices usually have a bearish effect on the national currency. The PPI data is due out at 12:00 GMT.

Technical view

usd-pln

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 3.1389. In case USD/PLN manages to breach the first resistance level at 3.1457, it will probably continue up to test 3.1512. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 3.1580.

If USD/PLN manages to breach the first key support at 3.1334, it will probably continue to slide and test 3.1266. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 3.1211.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 3.1239, M2 – 3.1300, M3 – 3.1362, M4 – 3.1423, M5 – 3.1485, M6 – 3.1546.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 3.1334. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 3.1530, R2 – 3.1669, R3 – 3.1865. The three key support levels are: S1 – 3.1195, S2 – 3.0999, S3 – 3.0860.

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