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Forex Market: USD/MXN daily trading outlook

Friday’s trade saw USD/MXN within the range of 13.1015 and 13.0462, the lowest since August 20th. The pair closed at 13.0823, losing 0.03% on a daily basis.

At 12:13 GMT today USD/MXN was up 0.02% for the day to trade at 13.0848. The pair held in a daily range between 13.0656 and 13.0997.

Fundamental view

The lack of data from the US on Monday, due to the Labor Day holiday, will cause the currency pair’s daily movements to be largely influenced by data from Mexico.

Activity in Mexicos manufacturing sector probably increased in August. The respective Purchasing Managers Index prepared by HSBC and Markit Economics probably improved to 51.7 last month from 51.5 in July. The indicator, which is based on a monthly survey, registered an all-time high at 57.10 in December 2012. Values above the key level of 50.0 indicate optimism among responding companies. In case the PMI was to rise more than expected, this would support the peso. The official reading is scheduled for release at 14:30 GMT.

On Thursday, INEGI will report on Mexicos Business Confidence, which probably rose in August, according to analysts preliminary forecasts.

In the US, the Institute for Supply Management and Markit Economics, will separately report on factory growth during August on Tuesday. Coming out later in the week are US factory orders, initial jobless claims and trader balance, as well as the all-important August non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate, due on Friday.

Technical view

usd-mxn.01.09

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 13.0767. In case USD/MXN manages to breach the first resistance level at 13.1071, it will probably continue up to test 13.1320. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 13.1624.

If USD/MXN manages to breach the first key support at 13.0518, it will probably continue to slide and test 13.0214. With this second key support broken, movement to the downside will probably continue to 12.9965.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 13.0090, M2 – 13.0366, M3 – 13.0643, M4 – 13.0919, M5 – 13.1196, M6 – 13.1472.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 13.0998. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 13.1549, R2 – 13.2219, R3 – 13.2770. The three key support levels are: S1 – 13.0328, S2 – 12.9777, S3 – 12.9107.

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