Forex Market: EUR/CAD daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/CAD within the range of 1.4045-1.4191. The pair closed at 1.4191, gaining 0.95% on a daily basis.

At 7:08 GMT today EUR/CAD was down 0.12% for the day to trade at 1.4171. The pair touched a daily low at 1.4157 at 6:30 GMT.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

The preliminary manufacturing PMI in the Euro zone probably came in at 50.6 in September, following a final reading of 50.7 in August. The latter has been the lowest level since July 2013, due to expanding activity in Germany at the slowest pace in 11 months and contracting activity in France and Italy. The official reading is scheduled to be released at 8:00 GMT. The PMI is based on a monthly survey, encompassing a sample of business entities, which represents private sector conditions in terms of new orders, output, employment, prices etc. Higher than expected readings would provide support to the common currency.

The preliminary services PMI in the Euro region probably slipped to 53.0 in the current month, after being reported at 53.1 in August. The official reading is due out at 8:00 GMT.

Canada

Retail sales in Canada probably increased 0.5% in July on a monthly basis, according to the median forecast by experts. If so, this would be the slowest rate of increase since March. In June sales rose 1.0%. Retail sales, excluding sales of automobiles, probably remained flat in July, following a 1.5% gain in the preceding month. Large-ticket purchases are excluded due to their high volatility, which could influence the general trend. In case retail sales increased more than anticipated, this would support the Canadian dollar. Statistics Canada is to release the official figure at 12:30 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 1.4142. In case EUR/CAD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.4240, it will probably continue up to test 1.4288. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.4386.

If EUR/CAD manages to breach the first key support at 1.4094, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.3996. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.3948.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 1.3972, M2 – 1.4045, M3 – 1.4118, M4 – 1.4191, M5 – 1.4264, M6 – 1.4337.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.4158. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.4307, R2 – 1.4549, R3 – 1.4698. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.3916, S2 – 1.3767, S3 – 1.3525.