Forex Market: GBP/BGN trading outlook for March 21st

Friday’s trade saw GBP/BGN within the range of 2.4968-2.5163. The pair closed at 2.5128, rising 0.43% on a daily basis. It has been the 10th gain in the past 20 trading days and also a second consecutive one. The daily high has been the highest level since March 15th, when a high of 2.5217 was registered. In weekly terms, GBP/BGN lost 0.32% of its value during the current week. It has been the 8th drop in the past 11 weeks and also a second consecutive one. GBP/BGN has gone up 0.35% so far during the current month, following three successive months of decline. In February GBP/BGN depreciated 2.69%.

On Monday (March 21st) GBP/BGN trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic report listed below.

Fundamentals

United Kingdom

CBI Industrial Trends Survey

At 11:00 GMT the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) will announce the results from its March survey, encompassing 17 major industries. The gauge of industrial orders in the UK stood in negative territory for a 10th consecutive period in the three months to February, as it came in at a reading of -17, falling from -15 in the three months to January. Februarys reading has been the lowest since October 2015.

This indicator reflects the net balance between companies, that registered an increase in industrial orders during the respective period of three months and those, that registered a drop. It is the oldest indicator, released from the UK private sector, to show the development tendency in the countrys industry. The Industrial Trends Survey by the Confederation of British Industry provides expert qualitative opinion from senior manufacturing executives, on past and expected trends in output, exports, prices, costs, investment intentions, business confidence and capacity utilization. A level above zero suggests that volume of orders is projected to increase, while a level below zero indicates that expectations point to lower volumes. If the survey showed predominant pessimism for an 11th consecutive period, this would have a limited bearish effect on the sterling.

Correlation with other currency pairs

Taking into account the week ended on March 18th and the daily closing levels of the currency pairs involved, we come to the following conclusions in regard to the strength of relationship:

GBP/BGN to GBP/USD (0.5007, or strong)
GBP/BGN to CHF/BGN (0.4928, or moderate)
GBP/BGN to NZD/USD (0.1992, or weak)
GBP/BGN to AUD/USD (0.1901, or weak)
GBP/BGN to USD/JPY (0.0802, or very weak)
GBP/BGN to USD/BGN (0.0707, or very weak)
GBP/BGN to USD/CHF (0.0084, or very weak)
GBP/BGN to EUR/USD (-0.0774, or very weak)
GBP/BGN to USD/CAD (-0.0860, or very weak)
GBP/BGN to DKK/BGN (-0.1440, or weak)

1. During the examined period GBP/BGN moved strongly in one and the same direction with GBP/USD.

2. The correlation between GBP/BGN and NZD/USD, GBP/BGN and AUD/USD, GBP/BGN and DKK/BGN was insignificant.

3. GBP/BGN moved almost independently compared to USD/JPY, USD/BGN, USD/CHF, EUR/USD and USD/CAD during the period in question. The correlation between GBP/BGN and USD/CHF was almost non-existent.

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the traditional calculation method, the Monday pivot levels for GBP/BGN are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 2.5086
R1 – 2.5205
R2 – 2.5281
R3 – 2.5400

S1 – 2.5010
S2 – 2.4891
S3 – 2.4815

By using the traditional method of calculation again, the weekly pivot levels for GBP/BGN are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 2.5044
R1 – 2.5377
R2 – 2.5627
R3 – 2.5960

S1 – 2.4794
S2 – 2.4461
S3 – 2.4211