Forex Market: USD/CAD trading outlook for Tuesday (November 8th 2016)

Yesterday’s trade (in GMT terms) saw USD/CAD within the range of 1.3312-1.3419. The pair closed at 1.3372, edging down 0.24% compared to Fridays close. It has been the 178th drop in the past 376 trading days. The daily low has been a level not seen since October 25th, when a low of 1.3278 was registered. The major pair has extended its drop to 0.28% so far during the current month, following a 2.14% advance in October.

At 8:59 GMT today USD/CAD was edging down 0.13% on the day to trade at 1.3355. The pair touched a daily high at 1.3391 during early Asian trade, undershooting the daily R2 level, and a daily low at 1.3353 during the early phase of the European trading session.

On Tuesday USD/CAD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic reports and other events as listed below.

Fundamentals

United States

Fed’s Evans speech

At 12:45 GMT the Fed President for Chicago, Charles Evans, is scheduled to participate in a moderated discussion entitled “A Conversation with Charles Evans” at the Council of Foreign Relations in New York.

Job Openings

The number of job openings in the United States probably rose to 5.508 million in September, according to the median forecast by experts, from 5.443 million during the preceding month. The latter has been the lowest number of openings since December 2015. In August, the number of positions waiting to be filled dropped mostly in professional and business services (-223 000), durable goods manufacturing (-29 000) and arts, entertainment, and recreation (-28 000).

This indicator refers to all job positions that are open, but not filled on the last business day of the month. Job openings are part of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which gathers data from about 16 400 non-farm establishments including retailers and manufacturers, as well as federal, state, and local government entities in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The survey assesses the unmet demand for labor in the labor market. A higher-than-projected level of job openings will usually have a limited bullish effect on the US Dollar. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is to release the official report at 15:00 GMT.

Presidential Election

Market players will be also keeping a close eye on the outcome of the US Presidential election.

Canada

Housing Starts

The number of housing starts in Canada probably dropped to the seasonally adjusted annual level of 195 000 in October from 220 617 in September. The latter has been the highest number of starts since September 2015.

Urban housing starts surged 19.7% to 201 848 units in September, as the multiple segment registered a 22.3% increase to 137 803 units and the single-detached segment went up 14.5% to 64 045 units. An increase in urban housing starts was reported in British Columbia, Quebec, the Prairies and in Atlantic Canada, while a drop – in Ontario. At the same time, housing starts in rural areas were reported at 18 769 in September.

Housing starts are considered as a key indicator, reflecting the strength of the nation’s housing sector. In case the number of housing starts decreased more than anticipated in October, this would have a moderate bearish effect on the Canadian dollar. The official report by the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation is due out at 13:15 GMT.

Building Permits

The overall value of building permits in Canada, issued by municipalities, probably decreased 5.6% in September, according to market expectations. The total value of building permits in the country went up 10.4% to reach CAD 7.3 billion in August compared to a month ago.

In August, the value of non-residential permits rose 11.6% to CAD 2.9 billion, supported by higher construction intentions for retail complexes, recreational and utilities buildings. In addition, the value of residential permits increased 9.6% to CAD 4.5 billion in August, following four successive months of decline. Permits for single-family homes went up 6%, while those for multi-family houses soared 14.7% during the month.

Building permits, as an indicator, provide information regarding demand in Canada’s housing sector. In case the total value of permits decreased more than expected in September from a month earlier, this would have a limited-to-moderate bearish effect on the Canadian Dollar. The official numbers by Statistics Canada are due out at 13:30 GMT.

Bond Yield Spread

The yield on Canada’s 2-year government bonds went up as high as 0.556% on November 7th, or matching the high from the preceding business day, after which it closed at 0.553% to add 3 basis points (0.03 percentage point) compared to November 4th.

Meanwhile, the yield on US 2-year government bonds climbed as high as 0.842% on November 7th, after which it fell to 0.818% at the close to lose 2.8 basis points (0.028 percentage point) compared to November 4th.

The spread between 2-year US and 2-year Canadian bond yields, which reflects the flow of funds in a short term, narrowed to 0.265% on November 7th from 0.267% on November 4th. The November 7th yield spread has been the lowest one since November 3rd, when the difference was 0.261%.

Daily, Weekly and Monthly Pivot Levels

By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily levels of importance for USD/CAD are presented as follows:

R1 – 1.3382
R2 – 1.3392
R3 (Range Resistance – Sell) – 1.3401
R4 (Long Breakout) – 1.3431
R5 (Breakout Target 1) – 1.3465
R6 (Breakout Target 2) – 1.3479

S1 – 1.3362
S2 – 1.3352
S3 (Range Support – Buy) – 1.3343
S4 (Short Breakout) – 1.3313
S5 (Breakout Target 1) – 1.3279
S6 (Breakout Target 2) – 1.3265

By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly levels of importance for USD/CAD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 1.3408
R1 – 1.3463
R2 – 1.3522
R3 – 1.3577
R4 – 1.3632

S1 – 1.3349
S2 – 1.3294
S3 – 1.3235
S4 – 1.3176

In monthly terms, for USD/CAD we have the following pivots:

Central Pivot Point – 1.3283
R1 – 1.3560
R2 – 1.3711
R3 – 1.3988
R4 – 1.4265

S1 – 1.3132
S2 – 1.2855
S3 – 1.2704
S4 – 1.2553